Much has been written in the blogosphere about Apples current
direction and what products/designs/direction the company needs in order
to survive. Theres a strong Apple is doomed sentiment, which is not
entirely unexpected. I think most of the Doomer crowd is composed of
folks who used to tout the latest iPod Killer product from one of the
many companies who attempted (and, lets remember, failed miserably) to
unseat Apples dominance in portable media. The Doomer movement focuses
on Apples lack of innovation as proof positive that the company cant
survive, and most distressingly, financial markets seem to be buying
into the hype. The only problem with the theory of doom is that the same
companies, e.g. Samsung, who are lauded for their innovation arent
necessarily doing all that much better.
For a company thats
consigned to failure, Apples continued growth to take nearly 40% of the
US smartphone market is certainly surprising. How can a company so close
to death be in such a good position (in that comScore ranking Apple had
the largest change, at 2.7 positive points)? The dichotomy of Apples
growth-but-still-dying situation revolves around the fact that many
consumers are choosing iPhone 4S models instead of the more expensive
iPhone 5, so clearly the companys future profits are going to evaporate.
I suspect, however, that well see something very similar for Samsung
with their Galaxy S4, and this hinges on a simple point; smartphone
innovation has to slow down from its frenetic post-iPhone launch pace.
Why?
Although the word innovate means to introduce as or as if
new, Ive noticed that successful innovations arent just new; theyre
better. Microsofts original tablet PC failed because it didnt do
anything demonstrably better than a laptop for most users,Elpas Readers
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platforms. while the iPod was a runaway success because it neatly
integrated the purchase, storage, transportation, and playback of music.
Sure other MP3 players had more features,You Can Find Comprehensive and
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truck Descriptions. but Apple nailed all the key parts of the
experience for a wide swath of users. Simply tacking on more stuff to a
phones feature list may technically qualify as innovating, but its an
unpredictable and unlikely way to create a successful product.
The
most crucial reason smartphone innovation has to hit the brakes is
because at this point weve covered most of the basic use cases for the
device itself. The smartphone is an inherently limited devicealthough
Steve Jobs imagined a limitless world when you removed the clunky
smartphone keyboard, the simple fact is 4-6 of glass isnt a whole lot of
real estate. Im not just talking about screen size here, but other
functions like credit card readers. These devices are generally not much
bigger than their screens, so where do you cram new hardware? Apple is
in a better position creating a rock solid core device and fostering the
universe of appcessories were now seeing, like the Square credit card
reader. You cant meet everyones needs with a Swiss Army iPhone, because
it would be too bulky and lead to inherent tradeoffs. This leaves a
pretty bleak future for iPhone feature development and future growth,
right? Wrong.
Modelled on the success of the iPod, Apple first
introduced the iPad and then followed it up with the iPad Mini to
address multiple markets at different price points. The iPads bigger
screen and more powerful capabilities give it more room to grow than the
iPhone, as its better battery life,We have a wide selection of handsfreeaccess
to choose from for your storage needs. beefier processor, and larger
size give it more flexibility than a smartphone that fits in your pocket
(good luck cramming some of the phablet devices into anything other
than cargo pants). The iPhone was really just a brief intermission in a
much longer play, but I think the iPhones insane growth blinded some
people to Apples real long term strategy. The only difference between
the iPad and the iPod (with respect to future Apple growth) is that the
iPod obviously didnt cannibalize sales; the iPad has displayed a
tendency to be a Mac replacement rather than a complement.
Although
Steve Jobs introduced the iPad as a device that fit between the
limited-but-ubiquitous smartphone and the chained-to-your-desk Mac, the
simple fact is the iPad is plenty of computer for a large number of
people. That means there is plenty of room for growth in the number of
features, as the iPad can evolve to replace more functions traditionally
executed by a laptop or desktop. As an amateur photographer, I have
found myself gravitating more and more to the iPad as a tool, because it
lets me quickly review, edit, and post photos without carrying around a
laptop, and if I really want to share pictures I dont even have to find
Wi-Fi. Apps alone cant do everything, though, so hopefully Apples
hardware team is busy testing and integrating new features that will
continue to evolve the device.
With the departure of Scott
Forstall from Apple last year, much has also been made of the potential
for a visually flat redesign of iOS led by Jony Ive, who was promoted to
head a unified Human Interface group within Apple. Apples truly
standout designs have never been purely visual, but humanly functional
as well. This is why the skeumorphic design trend in recent years has
been so poorly received; many apps were designed to look pretty first,
with functionality as an afterthought. I still smile when I see the faux
plastic texture of the Calculator app, but my hatred for the OS X
Contacts app knows virtually no bounds. Why? Because the original
incarnation of the Contacts app featured horribly broken functionality
(namely in managing groups), so the visual aesthetic got in the way of
usability.Shop wholesale bestsmartcard controller from cheap. Meanwhile the iOS Calculator just works, so the visual metaphor is delightful rather than frustrating.
I
hope to see a hint of Apples continued growth strategy revealed at WWDC
2013. New software features for the iPhone would be nice, but the
maturation of tablet acceptance means its time for Apple to really up
the iPad game. I think the lockstep between iPhone and iPad could at
this point be broken, as there is a clear differentiation between the
two devices. Features like true multitasking (or at least side by side
apps) make sense on an iPad being used as a Mac replacement, but have
little value on an iPhone.You can order besthandsfreeaccess
cheap inside your parents. iOS 7 is an opportunity not so much to
redesign look and feel, but to actually jumpstart functionality changes
that will truly define Apples long term growth.
I have no doubt
Apple is still as innovative as ever, because most of iOS 6s features
have become an integral part of my life. I think markets have become
accustomed to an overly energetic pace of new smartphone announcements,
and they have also been blinded to the long term potential of the other
irons Apple has in the fire. Shiny new gadgets and explosive growth are
sexy, but the iPhones growth was always unsustainable (even Steve Jobs
set a more modest goal of capturing 1% of the market, so double digit
market share gains were never really a plan).
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